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March 6, 2026- by Steven Greer

I am an old-fashioned Wall Street expert and have not been paying attention to these new quasi-derivative companies like Polymarket and Kalshi. They were stifle under Biden. Then, President Trump’s administration cleared them to operate.

However, Donald Trump Jr. is grifting and has financial involvement in both of them. Also, Peter Thiel, who many call the Shadow President, is an owner of Polymarket.

Grok

Overview of Prediction Markets:

Polymarket and Kalshi let users trade contracts on real-world event outcomes (elections, sports, economics), with prices reflecting crowd probabilities. They are federally regulated by the CFTC as derivatives (like futures), not gambling, allowing nationwide access without state licenses—unlike traditional sportsbooks. They position themselves as hedging/forecasting tools rather than chance-based betting.

• Polymarket (launched 2020): Blockchain-based, uses cryptocurrencies (e.g., USDC) for decentralized, global trades.
• Kalshi (launched 2018): Fiat-based (U.S. dollars), centralized, identity-verified platform built for U.S. compliance.

Regulatory Timeline:

• Biden era (2021–2024): Polymarket received a $1.4M CFTC fine in 2022 and was blocked from U.S. users; DOJ/CFTC probes escalated in 2024. Kalshi fought the CFTC in court over election/sports contracts; the agency sued to block them and proposed banning “gaming” events.
• Trump era (2025 onward): DOJ and CFTC dropped Polymarket investigations in July 2025 (no charges), enabling U.S. relaunch in December 2025. For Kalshi, the CFTC dropped appeals, withdrew the ban proposal, and backed it against state lawsuits, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction.

Ownership and Trump Jr. Ties:

• Polymarket: Owned by founder Shayne Coplan; backed by U.S. VCs and ICE (NYSE parent). Peter Thiel is one investor.
• Kalshi: Owned by founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara; funded by major U.S. VCs (Sequoia, a16z, Paradigm, etc.).

Donald Trump Jr. became a paid strategic advisor to Kalshi in January 2025. In August 2025 his firm 1789 Capital invested heavily in Polymarket and he joined its advisory board (unpaid). His involvement in both leading platforms—right as regulatory barriers vanished under his father’s administration—has triggered widespread accusations of grifting and conflict of interest. Critics highlight the timing and family financial ties as evidence of favoritism benefiting personal gain, though no formal wrongdoing has been proven. Supporters call it standard pro-business deregulation.

Peter Thiel’s Role and Insider Access Concerns:

Peter Thiel, via Founders Fund, has been a major backer of Polymarket since its early days, leading key funding rounds that helped scale the platform.

Critics argue his co-founding of Palantir—a company often called a “private CIA” for its CIA origins, massive U.S. intelligence contracts, and advanced surveillance/forecasting tools—gives him (or his network) exceptional insider access to geopolitical intelligence.

This fuels speculation that such knowledge could inform bets on high-stakes events (e.g., potential U.S./Israeli strikes on Iran), turning Polymarket into a vehicle for insiders to profit from non-public information rather than public forecasting.

Recent examples include suspicious Polymarket bets timed just before reported Israel-Iran actions in 2026, with some users making large profits and Israeli authorities arresting individuals for allegedly using classified military secrets to place bets.

While platforms prohibit insider trading, enforcement is difficult—especially on decentralized crypto sites—leading to concerns that these markets enable privileged actors to monetize asymmetric info on global events. The “shadow president” label reflects views of Thiel’s deep influence in the Trump era through investments, government ties, and protégés in power, though these claims remain speculative.