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Bloomberg TV had a rare sell-side guest on who said something smart. It was a lady from Royal Bank of Canada. She essentially said that as this Russian-Ukraine conflict goes on, Wall Street is going to start “connecting the dots” to all the various financial instruments and systems that can be affected by a global war. Every day, we are learning something new, like SWIFT. No one knew what SWIFT was two days ago.
This is what I’ve been saying when I call this a house of cards. The true financial status of the world (i.e., the secret derivatives and secret balance sheets) is being concealed. How many billions in cash reserves does Russia have hidden? What would happen if those reserves were dumped or frozen? What if China and Russia attacked the dollar? How many dumb banks have too many risky derivatives related to the Russian economy?
Those types of secrets are what always blow up the markets. If you look at every major depression in the past, they have been due to some concealed secret that became exposed, imploded the markets, and then caused a depression. It is always a house of cards.
The markets are not efficient and transparent. The big crimes always go undetected. Instead of Wall Street, it should be called House of Cards Boulevard, Opaque Way, or Shady Lane.