The Greer coronavirus model

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March 22, 2020- by Steven E. Greer, MD

I ran a spreadsheet on the virus numbers as a forward-looking model. I made the worst-case absurd-scenario assumptions, and then made my best guess assumptions.

Recall, I am one of the best in the world at predicting things based on my Wall Street track record.

Are you ready?

Here it goes:

  • If every American adult, 209 Million of them, were tested and 10% were positive, and the death rate stayed the same as today, then there would be 267,000 killed, which is the same as cancer each year.
  • In my more realistic assumptions, if 40 Million are tested and 5% are positive, at the current death rate, then only 25,600 die, which is less than flu/pneumonia at 36,000
  • However, the death rate will certainly come down. Let’s say it is 0.8% and 40 Million tested, then the total deaths, when this is all said and done, will be 16,000.

And I am not factoring in drug therapies. I am also not factoring in this unprecedented lockdown of big cities that will stop the spread.

The bottom line is that I do NOT see a massive tidal wave overwhelming the hospitals.

For perspective:

23,000 Have died from the regular flu in 2020
36,000 People killed by regular flu and pneumonia per CDC
70,000 People killed by opioids
285,360 People killed by cancer per ACS
647,000 People die from heart disease per CDC
2,800,000 Total deaths from all causes each year

As The Who said, “This is no social crisis, just another tricky day for you” Actually, it will be a social crisis; a man-made social crisis.

I correctly predicted that Trump would win, and put it into a story before the election. Those are my virus predictions.

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1 Response to The Greer coronavirus model

  1. DR B says:

    Now the question for The Ages will be: was $10.5 TRILLION in US wealth “worth it” to limit the hurt to 16,000 to 25,000 deaths?

    I say not.

    I say the “hospitalists” are/were freaking out and THEY made emotional decisions, even though they will tell you that they were making their decisions based on “science”…just like the climate “warmists”.

    Tell me the “cost” of joblessness as a public health risk?

    Tell me how many will die from alcohol abuse during this self-inflected “crisis”.

    The cost of curtailed education for 10’s of millions?

    Of “tele-learning” for new doctors in medical school?

    For demonstrating to governments around the world how QUICKLY THOSE

    AMERICANS FOLDED UNDER PRESSURE and gladly gave up their liberties???

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