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I ran a spreadsheet on the virus numbers as a forward-looking model. I made the worst-case absurd-scenario assumptions, and then made my best guess assumptions.
Recall, I am one of the best in the world at predicting things based on my Wall Street track record.
Are you ready?
Here it goes:
- If every American adult, 209 Million of them, were tested and 10% were positive, and the death rate stayed the same as today, then there would be 267,000 killed, which is the same as cancer each year.
- In my more realistic assumptions, if 40 Million are tested and 5% are positive, at the current death rate, then only 25,600 die, which is less than flu/pneumonia at 36,000
- However, the death rate will certainly come down. Let’s say it is 0.8% and 40 Million tested, then the total deaths, when this is all said and done, will be 16,000.
And I am not factoring in drug therapies. I am also not factoring in this unprecedented lockdown of big cities that will stop the spread.
The bottom line is that I do NOT see a massive tidal wave overwhelming the hospitals.
|23,000||Have died from the regular flu in 2020|
|36,000||People killed by regular flu and pneumonia per CDC|
|70,000||People killed by opioids|
|285,360||People killed by cancer per ACS|
|647,000||People die from heart disease per CDC|
|2,800,000||Total deaths from all causes each year|
As The Who said, “This is no social crisis, just another tricky day for you” Actually, it will be a social crisis; a man-made social crisis.
I correctly predicted that Trump would win, and put it into a story before the election. Those are my virus predictions.